Superforecasting – Philip Tetlock (2015)

Superforecasting – Philip Tetlock (2015)

sfMost important take-away: don’t take ‘experts’ too seriously, especially not the famous ones. They are very prone to looking at the world through the lens of a so-called hedgehog: there is only one truth and reality has to adapt to it.
Tetlock has even demonstrated an inversed correlation between fame and accuracy. The more famous the forecaster, the worse his predictions. Continue reading “Superforecasting – Philip Tetlock (2015)”

Magie in al je communicatie – Bas Mouton (2015)

Magie in al je communicatie – Bas Mouton (2015)

A self-help book that promises magic in all our communication by getting rid of the well known tricks (where to put your hands, how to capture the audience with your eyes etc), and have the guts to show yourself and convey a genuine message. Bas Mouton has formulated 9 rules, ranging from “give compliments to a critical audience” to “show why this message is important to you”. From these we learn that the single most important element of effective and powerful communication is the call to action – what do I want the other to change in his or her behavior? And don’t shy away from exciting resistance; this means the message has value.
Furthermore, Continue reading “Magie in al je communicatie – Bas Mouton (2015)”

Simple Rules –  D. Sull and K. Eisenhardt (2015)

Simple Rules – D. Sull and K. Eisenhardt (2015)

Simplification is not necessarily a form of stupidity – it can be a form of intelligence. Even of brilliance.

Simple rules are, simply put, rules of thumb. And simple rules are applicable to almost every area. They do three things very well:

  • Confer flexibility to pursue new opportunities while maintaining some consistency
  • Can produce better decisions
  • Allow members of a community to synchronize their activities with one another on the fly. Think bee colonies.

It is also my experience that one needs, in order to be effective, to bring back a strategy, or any message for that matter, to a coherent set of core rules or principles.
According to the authors these kinds of rules have four traits that make then attractive: They are limited to a handful and tailored to the person or organization using them. Furthermore they apply to a well-defined activity or decision (to prevent platitudes as ‘do your best’) and lastly, they provide clear guidance while conferring the latitude to exercise direction.

And that is what makes them powerful weapons Continue reading “Simple Rules – D. Sull and K. Eisenhardt (2015)”

Good to Great – Jim Collins (2001)

Good to Great – Jim Collins (2001)

With millions of copies sold this management classic has taught managers all over the world how to run their business and how to go from a good to a great company. There are some really valuable concepts in it (as the hedgehog principle and type-5 leaders), but reading it a decade and a half after publication also shows the flaws this kind of books have: they are a great way to learn lessons from the past but do a rather poor job in giving guidance for the future.

Continue reading “Good to Great – Jim Collins (2001)”