Category Archives: Van het web

The guilty elites

From a Martin Gurri piece at Mercatus: “When populists are accused of being offensive or unethical, we must keep in mind that their accusers—establishment media and political actors—have already been judged and found guilty by the public.For this to change, the elites have to change. Somehow, those at the top have to regain their goodContinueContinue reading “The guilty elites”

Populisme is geen bevlieging

Twee keer over duurzaamheid van het (nationaal) populisme, uit Engeland (Matthew Goodwin) en uit Frankrijk (Christophe Guilluy) National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy Elite legt het af tegen het populisme en hoe babybooomers het in de VS hebben verpest  van de briljante alleskunner Steven Brill “Yet key measures of the nation’s public engagement, satisfactionContinueContinue reading “Populisme is geen bevlieging”

Europe, head out into the world!

Bruno Maçães calls for a far more aggressive European foreign policy. “Crises and challenges unaddressed by an active foreign policy make themselves felt later in the domestic context. That’s how so many Commission proposals come to be: on relocating refugees, on blocking Chinese investment, on countering Russian fake news.” Read the full article here.

More realism – and not idealism – is needed

“Vice to which great powers easily succumb in a multipolar world is inattention; in a bipolar world, overreaction; in a unipolar world, overextension.” Isn’t that precisely what we have been witnessing? Convincing Foreign Policy piece from Stephen Walt on why thinking as a realist in (geo) politics is the best way to enhance the prospectsContinueContinue reading “More realism – and not idealism – is needed”

Jongere generatie hecht niet meer aan democratie. Of toch wel?

De nieuwe darling-politicoloog, de ietwat alarmistische Yascha Mounk vindt van niet en maakt zich zorgen. Tom van der Meer (van het onvolprezen blog Stuk Rood Vlees) weerlegt dat onderzoek, breed uitgevent door de NY Times. Het het valt allemaal reuze mee: de democratie is bij de neiuwe Europese generatie in goede handen.  

Populism’s continuing rise

Yascha Mounk interviewed by David Frum in the Atlantic, on populism, the trouble with illiberal democracies and America’s role. An excerpt: “The first is that we need to fight for an inclusive nationalism. This means that we oppose any attempt to identify the nation with a particular ethnic or religious group (as parts of the currentContinueContinue reading “Populism’s continuing rise”

Taleb & Kahneman. Together!

Two of the greatest minds alive (and authors of some of my favourite books) discuss anti-fragility, globalisation, the economy, fuck-you money, moral hazard, Prometheus, probability and washing machines. Somewhat awkward, never a real conversation  – yet always interesting. Just watch & enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMBclvY_EMA

The remedy for inequality? War

Democracy on its own does not consistently lower inequality, Walter Scheidel argues in the Atlantic, only catastrophe will. As “inequality has been written into the DNA of civilization ever since humans first settled down to farm the land. Throughout history, only massive, violent shocks that upended the established order proved powerful enough to flatten disparitiesContinueContinue reading “The remedy for inequality? War”

Still waiting for the new big macroeconomic idea..

Saltwater economics vs. freshwater economics: the battle is on. New Keynesian macroeconomists (saltwater) fail to acknowledge radical uncertainty in their models, and still can’t to explain why banks underprice risk worldwide. But has the other side a better model? Read this interesting article by Robert Skidelsky for Project Syndicate.

How to dispute indisputable facts

Well, try the guidebook of the cigarette industry, writes ‘ Undercover Economist’ Tim Harford. Applicable to Brexit campaigns, Trump news conferences, Russia state propaganda and Facebook filter bubbles. False claims stick……..fact checking doesn’t work (not in the least because facts are boring)……..distraction does work………….as does some level of ignorance…………and polarisation. How to solve this problem?ContinueContinue reading “How to dispute indisputable facts”

Fukuyama – the prophet

The read of the week: an essay on why Francis Fukuyama is still so widely misunderstood and the high level of accuracy his predictions had, including the rise of Donald Trump…25 years ago. An appetizer: “The spread of egalitarian values that went along with secular democratic politics would open up spaces of severe resentment –ContinueContinue reading “Fukuyama – the prophet”

Een conservatieve oplossing voor het klimaat

Heel interessant voorstel voor een CO2 belasting uit onverdachte hoek. Ondere uit de koker van Hank Paulson, minister van Financien onder George W. Bush en oud-topman van Goldman Sachs. Benieuwd of de nieuwe Republikeinse president er wat in ziet… Larry Summers is ook een voorstander.

Minority power

Fascinating piece by the great Nassim Nicholas Taleb (from last summer) on intolerance as a winning strategy (when in doubt, choose McDonald’s). It’s a long read, but worth every minute. It will teach you a lot on the impact of applying minority rule to democracy, religion and financial markets. As a teaser: “Let us conjectureContinueContinue reading “Minority power”

“I alone can solve”

Excellent piece by Yuval Levin from Commentary Magazine on the threat President Trump will pose to institutions, pluralism and – in the end – the American way of life. Full text Donald Trump’s insurgent takeover of the Republican Party and his victory in the 2016 election together constitute the culmination of a series of institutional breakdownsContinueContinue reading ““I alone can solve””

5 ingredients for a populist backlash

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmdxYTyrI-E American populism according to Niall Ferguson. In this recent talk he explains what is needed for ‘peak populism’ to get hold of America, as we see happening now. The context is set by four ingredients: 1) a surge in immigration 2) rising inequality 3) the perception of corruption 4) a financial crisis. Add aContinueContinue reading “5 ingredients for a populist backlash”

President Trump: what’s the matter?

https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_can_a_divided_america_heal Donald J. Trump has been elected President of the United States and will succeed Barack Obama early 2017. The campaign between the two flawed candidates was ugly, negative and intense. The outcome is nothing short of stunning. And has unveiled a divided America. In the coming days a million explanations, analyses and comments will floodContinueContinue reading “President Trump: what’s the matter?”

Judge less and understand more 

Reading this interview with J.D. Vance is one of the best ways to better understand the motives of Trump’s electorate. Vance is the eloquent and reasonable voice of conservative America. Here’s the full transcript of the interview: Trump: Tribune Of Poor White People – The American Conservative By Rod Dreher On July 22, 2016  I wrote last week about the newContinueContinue reading “Judge less and understand more ”

Values come first, facts & policies follow

Understanding Trump by George Lakoff A lot has  being written and spoken about Trump by intelligent and articulate commentators whose insights I respect. But as a longtime researcher in cognitive science and linguistics, I bring a perspective from these sciences to an understanding of the Trump phenomenon. This perspective is hardly unknown. More that half aContinueContinue reading “Values come first, facts & policies follow”

When and Why Nationalism Beats Globalism

Strong and insightful American Interest article by Jonathan Haidt on how moral psychology can help explain and reduce tensions between nationalism and globalism. What on earth is going on in the Western democracies? From the rise of Donald Trump in the United States and an assortment of right-wing parties across Europe through the June 23ContinueContinue reading “When and Why Nationalism Beats Globalism”

Incompetent, yet the leader

We keep cultivating this mythical image of a strong leader. It’s time for some nuance. A good start would be to make way for women. Men tend to think that they are smarter than women – and this confidence takes them to the top. Yet this hubris says nothing about their real talent for leadershipContinueContinue reading “Incompetent, yet the leader”

America Has Never Been So Ripe for Tyranny

We dangerously underestimate the risk of populism in this ultra-democratic era. American democracy is in danger of extinction. In an erudite New York Magazine article, Andrew Sullivan  links Plato’s warning on late-stage democracy, the problematic role of our emotional mass media, the economic stagnation of the American middle class, identity politics, fascism, and people’s preferenceContinueContinue reading “America Has Never Been So Ripe for Tyranny”

The Obama Doctrine: “Don’t do stupid shit”

Obama’s foreign policy is widely criticized for being dangerously reluctant (drawing unimpressive red lines for instance) and too timid (America shouldn’t be leading ‘from behind’). In this Atlantic article the president speaks at length about his decisions and doesn’t shy away from sharing his doubts. We get a front row seat at many important momentsContinueContinue reading “The Obama Doctrine: “Don’t do stupid shit””

The Trumpdozer

The Rolling Stone long-read that caused quite some online stir, arguing that the the presidential election campaign is really just a badly acted, billion-dollar TV show, in which Donald Trump makes the winning point that the regular guy has been screwed by a conspiracy of incestuous elites. The author,  Matt Taibbi, ends his piece withContinueContinue reading “The Trumpdozer”

How good are we at predicting the future?

Pretty lousy actually, as this short World Economic Forum article about our past attempts illustrates. To me, the historic examples also demonstrate that we tend to think in incremental changes (rolling house, flying postman) – we’re just not wired to imagine the unknown.  

What makes a good life?

This unique 75-year long Harvard research followed more than 700 men from teenager to old age, with one simple goal; to understand what makes them happy and healthy.The short answer is: good relationships keep us happier and healthier. Three lessons can be drawn: 1) social connections ensure a longer life, healthier life. 2) it’s notContinueContinue reading “What makes a good life?”

The Future of Europe

What is to become of Europe, now that it is in the midst of a perfect storm of several crises: recovering from a deep recession, coping with an unprecedented number of asylum seekers and refugees, not being able to protect its borders, terrorist attacks and – as a result – declining trust of its citizens?ContinueContinue reading “The Future of Europe”

Why our brain is hard-wired to love Trump

Interesting Politico piece arguing we don’t really care about the truth, the reason why so many politicians get away with lies. We are inclined to believe them unless we have a previous reason not to believe them. It’s all about cognitive dissonance. Related, some insight on whether the Republican party will survive the Donald.

Al Qaeda’s youthful new face

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sPY0X8SrLo A chilling inside report of Al Nusra, the Syrian branch on Al Qaeda. Al Nusra is fighting  Bashar Al-Assad’s forces and the Islamic State. What broke my heart was watching 8 year olds sing ‘I am going to fight the Jews’ and yelling that Americans will find their grave in Syria. One of the youngest giggles whenContinueContinue reading “Al Qaeda’s youthful new face”

At war

  Since the horrendous attacks in my beloved Paris I’ve been increasing my reading on ISIS, the attacks, jihadism and the Middle-East. Here’s a selection: A Vox article on the gap between true narratives and true facts. “America has not changed Iraq or Syria, but the wars there have indeed changed America” – a long-read ContinueContinue reading “At war”

The migration dilemma

In times of great emotion taking some distance can generate new perspectives. For sure, in dealing with the huge immigration crisis in Europe rational analysis is of great help in finding workable answers. This is an interesting, factual look at arguably the biggest challenge we’ve been facing for a while on the Old Continent. TheContinueContinue reading “The migration dilemma”

Messy Iraq will remain an issue in American elections

As this New Yorker article by Dexter Filkins (author of the great book The Forever War) argues, it should’t surprise anyone that no politician in charge in the last 10 years, Republican or Democrat, isn’t compromised by the chaotic American involvement in Iraq. Claiming that State Secretary Hillary Clinton stood by while events unravelled is as un-factualContinueContinue reading “Messy Iraq will remain an issue in American elections”

The importance of insititutional reform – lessons for Greece

A recent Foreign Affairs article draws a parallel between the Greek crisis and how Latvia recovered from its own crisis. The lesson – one that we learn over and over again – is clear: unless accompanied by substantial institutional reforms, neither austerity nor Grexit will work. I furthermore hope that Tsipras finds the time toContinueContinue reading “The importance of insititutional reform – lessons for Greece”

Modern Verdun

April 25th, 2012, Originally published on thnk.org TAKE A STAND | I was hoping that Easter would bring us a small miracle. The miracle of a political breakthrough. Not in the last place because Easter is a historically good period for miracles. It didn’t happen.  But then suddenly, last Saturday, after 7 weeks of completeContinueContinue reading “Modern Verdun”